Here’s How You’ll Know Android Finally Thumped The iPhone (AAPL, GOOG)

google io sundarVenture capitalist Chis Dixon had an interesting post on his blog this weekend about the direction of mobile tech.

He covers a range of interesting topics from the perspective of someone with an inside look at companies that most people haven’t even heard of yet.

Here’s his take on the war between Google’s Android and Apple’s iPhone:

“Fans of Apple and Google have been arguing lately about which company is winning mobile. Apple has more profits, but Android has more users. But what really matters is when and if developers switch over to developing for Android first, or even Android only. For now, iOS users tend to monetize much better than Android users, more than making up for the smaller user base. The switch to Android first hasn’t happened yet, but at least based on conversations I’ve had with entrepreneurs, it seems likely to happen in the next year or two.”

He also has an insightful take on why big companies like Microsoft are slow to move to Apple’s App Store:

“App stores have had a few important effects: 1) They take 30% of revenue, which scares away most big companies (e.g. Microsoft) and also startups/venture capitalists. Not many businesses can survive an immediate 30% haircut. 2) They’ve led consumers to expect very low prices for software. It’s hard to imagine charging $30 let alone hundreds of dollars for software through app stores (although some mega-hit games do get near these levels with in-app purchases). This is why many big software vendors are scared.”

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